The Premier League could have six teams in the Champions League next season and 10 in Europe after a potentially pivotal weekend.
Manchester United moved within touching distance of Champions League qualification with a 2-1 win against Brentford on Monday Night Football. The win extended Michael Carrick’s side’s stranglehold on third place with a hard-fought Old Trafford victory, giving them an 11-point lead over sixth-placed Brighton with just four games to play.
United now need just two points to confirm their return to the top tier of European football.
Meantime, Liverpool’s win over Crystal Palacealong with Aston Villa’s defeat against Fulham Earlier in the day, Arne Slot’s team moved into fourth place on goal difference and opened the possibility that the Premier League will have six teams in the Champions League next season.
Should Unai Emery’s men finish fifth but also win the Europa League, fifth place – an extra position earned due to English teams’ recent performances in Europe – would be transferred to the sixth-placed team, currently Brighton on 50 points.
But Brighton are just two points ahead of Fulham in 10th place, meaning the battle for Europe is really on for Bournemouth (49 points), Chelsea (48 points) and Brentford (48 points).
As things stand, the Premier League is guaranteed five teams in Europe’s premier club competition next season, meaning there will be at least eight teams competing in Europe, with the two Europa League qualifying spots (team finishing sixth and FA Cup winners) and a single Conference League space (team finishing seventh).
More commonly, that number can even go as high as 10. This is how:
Can the Premier League really have six teams in the Champions League?
Yes, there are a few ways this could happen, although some are more likely than others.
The most likely is entry via winning the Europa League, with Aston Villa or Nottingham Forest meet in the semi-finals, meaning that one English team will be in the final.
If it is Villa who win the competition but also finish in the top four, nothing changes and the Champions League place reserved for winning the Europa League will be transferred to the team that qualifies with the best UEFA coefficient, which is Club Brugge as things stand now.
However, if Unai Emery’s side were to triumph in Istanbul on May 20 but finish outside the top four, the Premier League would have six teams in next season’s Champions League, although Villa’s final position in the table would then determine who took the extra spot.
Should Villa finish fifth, for example, the sixth-placed team would be in Europe’s premier club competition, although the Premier League would then give up a place in next season’s Europa League.
In total, however, England would still have eight European places next season: six via the Champions League and one each in the Europa League (the FA Cup winners) and the Conference League (finishing in seventh).
However, things are far less complicated if Forest cause an upset by winning Europe’s second-tier competition, as they will be merely the Premier League’s sixth Champions League representative next season, as happened with Tottenham Hotspur last campaign.
How can the Premier League have nine teams in Europe next season?
Remember the team that wins the Conference League goes straight into next season’s Europa League.
Crystal Palace – who face Shakhtar Donetsk in the semi-finals – are favorites to lift that trophy in Leipzig on May 27 and with Oliver Glasner’s side 13th in the table and unlikely to qualify for Europe via their league position, they will compete in next season’s Europa League.
As a result, this will mean nine Premier League teams in Europe next season: five via the Champions League and three in the Europa League (FA Cup & Conference League winners and team finishing sixth) and one in the Conference League (team finishing seventh).
So how can England have 10 teams in Europe?
That scenario would require Palace to win the Europa Conference League, Forest or Villa to win the Europa League – and if it’s Villa, they would also need to finish outside the top six in the Premier League.
In that case, the Premier League would have six teams in the Champions League (the top five and the Europa League winners), three in the Europa League (team finishing sixth, the FA Cup & Conference League winners) and one in the Conference League (team finishing seventh).
Does the identity of the FA Cup winners affect things?
Yes, although not the number of teams competing in Europe, just who competes in which competition.
For example, if Manchester City win an eighth FA Cup at Wembley on May 16, sixth and seventh places in the Premier League will qualify for the Europa League, with eighth going into the Conference League.
However, if Chelsea win the cup, the west London club will need to finish in the top seven for the Conference League spot to transfer to eighth.
