Premier League European race: The battle for sixth – and why teams may have to lose on the final day

Both elements needed for sixth place to be a Champions League place seem quite plausible.

Aston Villa will have to finish exactly in fifth place (where they currently live) and win the Europa League.

They are 1-0 behind Nottingham Forest after the semi-final first leg, but is at home for Thursday’s return leg.

This scenario will only play out if Villa finish fifth – and not in the top four (or bottom fifth) – due to a quirk in Uefa’s rules.

The Premier League dropped a fifth Champions League spot due to English teams’ performances in Europe – something called the European Performance Spot (EPS).

Basically, when it comes to handing out European places, Uefa goes by local positions and who won the European trophies first, before factoring in the EPS.

So if Villa win the Europa League and finish fifth, that EPS place will be transferred to the sixth-placed team – who would qualify for the Champions League.

However, if Villa finish in the top four, winning the Europa League will make no difference to any other English teams. In this situation, the sixth finisher would qualify for the Europa League.