Putin’s strategy is that Ukraine will fail before he does: Ex-FM Kuleba | Russia-Ukraine war News

As Ukraine marks four years since Russia’s full-scale invasion on Tuesday, Dmytro Kuleba, the war-torn country’s former foreign minister from 2020 to 2024, talks to Al Jazeera about how early expectations of a short war have given way to a festering conflict with no clear end in sight.

From shifting definitions of victory and growing rifts among Ukraine’s allies to negotiations with Moscow and lessons learned in the Global South, Kuleba reflected on what survival, realism and determination mean for Ukraine today.

The 44-year-old, who is now an associate professor at Sciences Po in France and a non-resident senior fellow at Harvard Kennedy School, spoke to Al Jazeera via video link from Kiev, where he lives.

Here is our interview, lightly edited for clarity and brevity.

Al Jazeera: As the war enters a fifth year, is there any room for optimism?

Dmytro Kuleba: Optimism must be rooted in reality, and there will be no ceasefire in Ukraine until the end of winter.

I don’t mean the calendar winter; I mean the temperatures and the weather.

(Russian President Vladimir) Putin was relentless destruction our energy system and to plunge millions of Ukrainians into cold and darkness to tear them down, not to make a good deal with them.

After winter ends, there will be a slim chance for a truce, and whether that slim chance can become real will depend on two factors.

First, whether Russia will be able to make progress on the battlefield, because if it does, it will have no incentive to stop.

And secondly, whether the Russian economy will cripple under the pressure of mounting problems.

Al Jazeera: Is Russia negotiating in good faith or is it buying time with the current talks?

Kuleba: Throughout its history, Russia has not been particularly known for negotiating in good faith.

They test how much they can achieve at the negotiating table instead of achieving the same goals on the battlefield. Second, they’re engaging in meaningful conversation and trying to understand how a potential ceasefire might work from a technical perspective, just to have that framework on the table.

But that means sensibly not in good faith.

Putin believes he can win the war. He believes he is making progress on the battlefield and that he can manage problems in the Russian economy. His strategy is for Ukraine to fail before he does.

Al Jazeera: Is the current situation something you envisioned in February 2022?

Kuleba: When war breaks out, your first instinct is to believe that it will not last long… and all you have to do is survive the first attack, and then the attacking side will realize that it has not achieved its goals.

But while you keep this instinctive scenario in your mind, you should also always remember that things can take longer than you expect.

Did I expect the war to last for four years? No, I didn’t. But was I preparing myself for a long war? Yes, somewhere in the back of my mind I kept that option open.

Al Jazeera: What does victory mean to you now?

Kuleba: It started as a nightmare, and by the end of (2022) we had captured half of the territories that Russia captured in the first months of the invasion, and we were pushing them back on old fronts. (Russian troops) struggled to stabilize the front line; a sense of euphoria prevailed in Ukraine, both among the decision-makers and the population.

It was the moment when victory was defined as regaining control of the 1991 border, which existed before Russia annexed Crimea and intervened in eastern Ukraine in 2014.

But this hope…did not pass the reality test by the end of 2023, when our major counter-offensive failed.

Since then, politicians and people in Ukraine find it increasingly difficult to redefine victory and talk about it, which I think is a big problem, because if you don’t define what your final goal is, you’ll never get it.

So I offer my understanding of victory today, which would be to cease fire along the existing front line to stop hostilities and establish a provisional ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine in order to receive a long multi-year program of military support to Ukraine; to launch a multi-billion recovery plan for Ukraine, and to see Ukraine as a member of the European Union.

Victory must always be defined not only against your own goals, but also against the initial goals of your enemy.

So if I look back to 2022 and assume that Russia’s main objective was the dismantling of Ukrainian statehood and the return of Ukraine under its full control, then… Russia failed.

Al Jazeera: Do you feel that the West and your vision are aligned?

Kuleba: The West no longer really exists in the form we are used to thinking about it.

Europe is aligned. Some countries outside of Europe, belonging to what used to be the West, were also aligned, such as Japan, Australia and other nations.

The United States now holds a different view; they just want to end hostilities at any cost.

Al Jazeera: What security guarantees does Ukraine need for a possible ceasefire to last?

Kuleba: It would be Russia that accepts that Ukraine has a right to exist as an independent, sovereign and European nation.

Everything in between a possible ceasefire and the acceptance of this fact will be a conflict, which takes one form or another.

Al Jazeera: Is there still defiance among Ukrainians?

Kuleba: We won the winter battle. It was a battle for our resolve and stamina, and Putin hoped we would be broken. We are exhausted, but not broken.

Al Jazeera: What would you say to Ukraine’s supporters who have raised concerns about recent corruption scandals?

a big corruption case always causes two reactions.

If you want to argue, if your goal is to argue that Ukraine is corrupt, you start talking about how big the corruption scheme was.

If you want to argue that Ukraine has finally built (a) resilient and robust architecture of anti-corruption institutions, then you are making the point that ministers and senior officials are no longer immune from prosecution, and anti-corruption bodies are doing their job.

I think Ukraine actually sets an example for many other nations of how to fight corruption under very challenging circumstances.

Al Jazeera: As foreign minister from 2020 to 2024, you engaged with the Global South, especially with African countries. What have you learned about the appeal of some of Russia’s narratives?

Kuleba: First, Russia’s influence in countries of the global south is overestimated.

Russia is not strong on its own. It is strong because it has China behind it, and China is extremely strong all over the world.

Second, it’s not because people in the global south like Russia. It’s because they don’t like the West or what was left out of it.

The anti-Western European, anti-American sentiment is so strong that many choose to sympathize (with the) Russian story simply because it is anti-European… not because it is a strong argument in itself.

The third lesson is that you cannot come and demand anything, because (countries in the Global South) have grown quite a thick skin against those who come to their capitals and demand.

Al Jazeera: Did Ukraine’s experience resonate?

Kuleba: No, because if you go to Africa for example, their understanding of colonialism is set in stone, and it’s a white man oppressing a Black man.

So to them a white man oppressing another white man is… a bad thing, but it is not colonialism.

I just dropped the argument. These nations are forward thinking. When it comes to countries like Ukraine, they don’t want to hear about grievances and historical parallels.

They don’t want to hear the stories of how Ukraine, as part, while it was part of the Soviet Union, was part of the anti-colonial and anti-apartheid efforts.

They want to know how they can do business with you, while not alienating Russia.

Al Jazeera: Is the global South important in shaping a peace process and the future of Ukraine?

Kuleba: We must be respectful, but honest. I actually doubt it exists as a whole, but let’s say that a part of the world called the Global South is unwilling to risk its involvement in trying to resolve the conflict.

Some countries do have leverage, and some countries are absolutely necessary to broker peace and make things work.

Saudi Arabia and (its) role in the global oil market; the United Arab Emirates, which provides a platform for negotiations between Russia, Ukraine and the United States. Some of the players can and should play a role.