Heatwaves, floods and wildfires pose an increasing threat to democracy, the report finds global development

Democracy is under increasing threat from the climate crisis, with new analysis documenting how elections are increasingly shaped not only by political forces, but also by floods, wildfires and extreme weather.

At least 94 elections and referendums in 52 countries have been disrupted by climate-related impacts over the past two decades, researchers have found.

As risks increase, the pressure on already fragile democratic systems – especially in Africa and Asia – is expected to grow.

The findingsfrom the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, an intergovernmental organization dedicated to supporting democracy around the world, is the first global analysis of how natural hazards affect elections.

In 2024, those hazards disrupted 23 elections in 18 countries, including Brazil, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Senegal, either by damaging infrastructure, displacing voters or causing last-minute changes to electoral processes.

The report’s co-author Sarah Birch, a professor of politics at King’s College London, said elections needed to be timed to avoid predictable climate threats, noting that even the US was still holding elections in November during the hurricane season.

“Elections should be held when disasters are least likely,” she said. “In some cases, election management bodies will also need to consider changes to election timelines to reduce the likelihood of disruption from short-term disasters.”

The findings highlight more than 100 climate-related crises, including Mozambique’s 2019 elections, when Cyclone Idai flooded thousands of homes, schools, power lines and roads and people were forced to move to safer places, events which, according to the report, “influenced the results of the presidential election and the distribution of legislative and provincial seats.”

Another example is the flooding that occurred during Senegal’s parliamentary elections in November 2024, when firefighters had to help bring election observers to polling stations.

Heat waves are another recurring problem, with at least 10 elections since 2022 affected by very hot weather. Among them were the general election in the Philippines last year, when intense heat caused some vote-counting machines to overheat on Election Day and run out previously accepted ballots.

Heat is a particular threat to elections in the world’s megacities, which have populations of more than 10 million. The Nigerian city of Lagos now has the most days a year – 89 – where local temperatures are significantly above pre-climate change levels.

To help mitigate the impact of extreme climate events, the report advocates that those organizing elections work closely with meteorological experts, environmental protection bodies and disaster relief and humanitarian agencies.

For example, election staff in Peru received training in disaster risk management to help them respond to disruptions on polling day. Next year, the Alberta provincial legislature in Canada will move its traditional May election date to October to accommodate the wildfire season.

Ferran Martínez i Coma, a professor of government at Australia’s Griffith University, said: “As natural hazards increase, training and contingency planning are more important than ever. Preparation is key to the integrity and resilience of the elections.”