T20 World Cup 2025/26, NZ vs PAK 41st Match, Super Eights, Group 2 Match Preview

Big picture: Two teams among the middle powers

For New Zealand, the biggest challenge is the change of location. They played all their matches in Chennai and Ahmedabad, relying on a seam-spin balance that leaned towards the former, with Mitchell Santner the only front-line spinner and Rachin Ravindra or Glenn Phillips chipping in with the odd over. In Colombo, that balance is likely to reverse as the slower bowlers take center stage, something Pakistan have employed so effectively in most of their matches.

Santner’s men did not tinker much with the batting order, which for the most part held up remarkably well. Against weaker opponents, some combination of openers Finn Allen and Tim Seifert, or top-order batsmen Ravindra and Phillips, have shown enough firepower to get home. Opposition attacks have also struggled to get their way, with New Zealand losing just 14 wickets in four matches, the second-fewest of any side in this tournament.

Unlike New Zealand, Pakistan now knows this city well. Three of their four matches may have been played at the SSC – the other Colombo ground – but their game against India here at the RPS was, like Saturday’s game, also an evening game, giving them a valuable read on the pitch and conditions. It is the venue where they have used more spin than anywhere else, with captain Salman Ali Agha suggesting he would only continue in the Super eight.

Pakistan’s top order has the explosiveness to blow teams away, even if they have struggled to translate that potential with form for Saim Ayub. Sahibzada Farhan on the other hand has taken up the mantle of powerplay run-scoring as runs for Agha have dried up ahead of the match against Namibia, and Babar Azam is no closer to maximizing his ability. That fragility too quickly brings out a middle order involving too many bowling all-rounders or the untested Khawaja Nafay, a situation that led to a near defeat against the Netherlands and a decisive defeat against India.

These are two teams situated among the middle powers of this World Cup, eager to demonstrate that they are better than they managed against true superpowers like India and South Africa. What ultimately matters is which of them can show they are better than the middling power they face on Saturday.

Form guide

New Zealand: WLWWL (last five completed games, most recent first)
Pakistan: WWWW

In the spotlight: Jacob Duffy and Abrar Ahmed

Team news

Abrar Ahmed is expected to return to the team, but Pakistan will not want to make major changes to a team that performed so well in their must-win game against Namibia.

Pakistan: 1 Sahibzada Farhan, 2 Saim Ayub, 3 Salman Ali Agha (captain) 4 Babar Azam, 5 Khawaja Nafay, 6 Shadab Khan, 7 Usman Khan (wk) 8 Mohammad Nawaz/Faheem Ashraf, 9 Salman Mirza, 10 Usman Abrar Ahmed, 11

New Zealand will call on Lockie Ferguson, who arrives in Sri Lanka on Friday night after being granted paternity leave. It will be interesting to see how New Zealand manage to incorporate more spin in their XI to reconcile with Sri Lankan conditions. It could bring in Ish Sodhi for his first match this World Cup.

New Zealand: 1 Tim Seifert (wk), 2 Finn Allen, 3 Rachin Ravindra, 4 Glenn Phillips, 5 Mark Chapman, 6 Daryl Mitchell, 7 Mitchell Santner (capt), 8 Jimmy Neesham, 9 Matt Henry, 10 Ish Sodhi 11 Jacob Duffy

Pitch and conditions

The Premadasa surface is likely to be more conducive to spin bowling than its Sinhalese counterpart, and with larger boundaries making run scoring an even greater challenge. A notable exception, however, was Zimbabwe’s high-scoring win over Sri Lanka on Thursday, on a belter of a bat. There is a slight chance of evening showers, and Pakistan’s practice session on Friday was canceled due to rain.

Statistics and trivia